Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 September 2004 1200 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 32 | 32 | 82 | 84 | 79 | 101 | 155 | 267 | 291 | 346
| AVNO | 11 | 23 | 24 | 39 | 101 | 146 | 222 | 385 | 389 | 547
| %IMP | 65% | 21% | 78% | 54% | -28% | -45% | -43% | -44% | -34% | -58%
|
| GFNO | 10 | 24 | 31 | 90 | 171 | 266 | 365 | 546 | 654 | 1003
| GFDL | 0 | 15 | 41 | 118 | 242 | 350 | 402 | 648 | 803 | 1176
| %IMP | 100% | 37% | -32% | -31% | -42% | -32% | -10% | -19% | -23% | -17%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -34 | -27 | 1 | -9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 8
| AVNO | -14 | -20 | -2 | -15 | 5 | 9 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 5
| %IMP | 59% | 26% | -100% | -67% | -150% | -29% | -200% | -300% | 25% | 32%
|
| GFNO | 21 | 12 | 29 | 22 | 33 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 40
| GFDL | 12 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 28 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 25
| %IMP | 43% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 0% | 25% | 71% | 30% | 37%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 16.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.22 | 80.19 | 21.0 | 2.4 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| AVNO | 27.05 | 80.11 | 17.0 | 18.9 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| %IMP | 89% | -688%
|
| GFNO | 27.11 | 80.16 | 17.5 | 10.8 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| GFDL | 27.19 | 80.27 | 19.0 | 7.0 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| %IMP | -150% | 35%
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0WMouth of Aucilla River, FL 54.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 29.80 | 84.69 | 55.0 | 74.3 | Carrabelle, FL
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 29.77 | 85.29 | 52.5 | 129.5 | Port St. Joe, FL
| GFDL | 30.45 | 86.93 | 58.5 | 283.8 | Pensacola, FL
| %IMP | -200% | -119%
| | |||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 September 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 04 September 2004 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Predction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 02 september 2004 1800 UTC to 03 September 2004 1200 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Frances.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 04 September 2004 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 04 September 2004 1200 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. ??The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 6. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 04 September 2004 1200 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
