Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 September 2004 0600 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 32 | 52 | 112 | 103 | 146 | 244 | 220 | 396 | 641 | 731
| AVNO | 15 | 30 | 53 | 67 | 188 | 305 | 375 | 493 | 713 | 823
| %IMP | 52% | 43% | 52% | 45% | -29% | -25% | -70% | -24% | -11% | -13%
|
| GFNO | 83 | 83 | 83 | 78 | 156 | 246 | 323 | 507 | 755 | 918
| GFDL | 30 | 45 | 67 | 97 | 256 | 337 | 452 | 651 | 938 | 1185
| %IMP | 65% | 46% | 19% | -24% | -64% | -37% | -40% | -28% | -24% | -29%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -32 | -34 | -8 | -2 | 10 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 7
| AVNO | -5 | -23 | -7 | 0 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 3
| %IMP | 84% | 32% | 13% | 100% | -60% | 41% | -19% | 14% | 67% | 57%
|
| GFNO | 13 | 15 | 32 | 32 | 37 | 33 | 31 | 15 | 13 | 13
| GFDL | 12 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 43 | 50 | 37 | 25 | 13 | 12
| %IMP | 8% | 53% | 31% | 22% | -16% | -52% | -19% | -67% | 0% | 8%
|
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| 04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 4.0 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.60 | 78.36 | 6.5 | 15.9 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.62 | 78.18 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 60% | 81%
|
| GFNO | 26.30 | 78.71 | 13.0 | 60.7 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.63 | 78.32 | 6.5 | 12.4 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 72% | 80%
|
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 22.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.89 | 80.07 | 26.0 | 36.8 | Jupiter, FL
| AVNO | 26.98 | 80.10 | 21.0 | 26.4 | Jupiter, FL
| %IMP | 57% | 28%
|
| GFNO | 26.52 | 80.06 | 24.5 | 76.8 | Delray Beach, FL
| GFDL | 26.76 | 80.04 | 21.0 | 51.4 | Riviera Beach, FL
| %IMP | 25% | 33%
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 60.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.64 | 85.43 | 75.0 | 146.9 | Cape San Blas, FL
| AVNO | 30.25 | 88.08 | 82.5 | 392.2 | Dauphin Island, AL
| %IMP | -50% | -167%
|
| GFNO | 30.30 | 87.24 | 74.5 | 311.9 | Pensacola, FL
| GFDL | 30.37 | 88.62 | 76.5 | 444.5 | Pascagoula, MS
| %IMP | -14% | -43%
|
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 September 2004 0600 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 04 September 2004 0600 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 04 September 2004 0600 UTC.
