Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 20 | 30 | 40 | 37 | 76 | 59 | 58 | 15 | 90 | 195
| AVNO | 30 | 32 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 31 | 35 | 58 | 244 | 317
| %IMP | -50% | -7% | 42% | 38% | 62% | 47% | 40% | -287% | -171% | -63%
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| GFNO | 15 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 35 | 58 | 95 | 177 | 262 | 309
| GFDL | 23 | 10 | 37 | 35 | 0 | 31 | 119 | 163 | 231 | 285
| %IMP | -53% | und% | -54% | und% | 100% | 47% | -25% | 8% | 12% | 8%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -33 | -35 | -24 | -14 | 4 | -10 | 4 | -1 | -1 | -2
| AVNO | -2 | -16 | -8 | -19 | 1 | -10 | 10 | -1 | 4 | 3
| %IMP | 94% | 54% | 67% | -36% | 75% | 0% | -60% | 0% | -300% | -50%
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| GFNO | 25 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 27 | 10 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 20
| GFDL | 18 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 29 | 11 | 22 | 27 | 13 | 19
| %IMP | 28% | 36% | 6% | 35% | -7% | -10% | 0% | -29% | 0% | 5%
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04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 22.0 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 26.72 | 78.06 | 22.0 | 19.3 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.71 | 78.29 | 19.5 | 15.1 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und% | 22%
|
| GFNO | 26.62 | 78.18 | 20.5 | 13.5 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.65 | 78.16 | 20.0 | 6.8 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -33% | 50%
|
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05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 40.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.61 | 80.34 | 46.5 | 48.6 | Fort Pierce, FL
| AVNO | 27.29 | 80.22 | 41.0 | 10.2 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| %IMP | 92% | 79%
|
| GFNO | 27.32 | 80.25 | 42.5 | 14.2 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| GFDL | 26.83 | 80.02 | 38.5 | 44.8 | Riviera Beach, FL
| %IMP | 0% | -215%
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 78.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 30.08 | 84.11 | 78.0 | 10.8 | St. Marks, FL
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 29.84 | 84.71 | 75.0 | 74.2 | Carrabelle Beach, FL
| GFDL | 29.83 | 84.66 | 76.0 | 70.3 | Carrabelle Beach, FL
| %IMP | 33% | 5%
| |