Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 September 2004 0000 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 37 | 22 | 15 | 41 | 86 | 99 | 95 | 131 | 56 | 84
| AVNO | 11 | 60 | 60 | 104 | 161 | 184 | 168 | 141 | 75 | 37
| %IMP | 70% | -173% | -300% | -154% | -87% | -86% | -77% | -8% | -34% | -44%
|
| GFNO | 20 | 78 | 35 | 63 | 104 | 169 | 124 | 116 | 134 | 237
| GFDL | 15 | 49 | 15 | 32 | 80 | 131 | 118 | 153 | 91 | 58
| %IMP | 25% | 37% | 51% | 49% | 23% | 22% | 5% | -32% | 32% | 76%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -50 | -34 | -35 | -27 | -15 | -2 | -10 | 7 | 7 | 3
| AVNO | -25 | -8 | -9 | -2 | -1 | 10 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 0
| %IMP | 50% | 76% | 74% | 93% | 93% | -400% | 80% | 0% | 100% | 100%
|
| GFNO | 22 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 15 | 34 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 27
| GFDL | 7 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 29 | 18 | 32 | 27 | 22
| %IMP | 68% | 24% | 40% | -8% | 0% | 15% | 10% | -45% | -50% | 19%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 5.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.71 | 75.62 | 4.0 | 12.4 | Cat Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.67 | 75.61 | 4.5 | 7.8 | Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 33% | 37%
|
| GFNO | 24.75 | 75.57 | 7.5 | 16.9 | Cat Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.75 | 75.55 | 5.5 | 17.4 | Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | -3%
|
|
03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 10.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.21 | 76.24 | 8.5 | 18.6 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 25.18 | 76.12 | 9.5 | 9.1 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 67% | 51%
|
| GFNO | 25.23 | 76.04 | 11.5 | 15.7 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.20 | 76.01 | 10.0 | 14.3 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | 9%
|
04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 34.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.70 | 78.11 | 32.0 | 14.3 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.86 | 77.64 | 31.5 | 62.6 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -25% | -338%
|
| GFNO | 26.91 | 77.85 | 28.0 | 48.9 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.73 | 77.92 | 30.5 | 31.3 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 42% | 36%
|
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 52.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.31 | 80.24 | 62.5 | 12.8 | Port St. Lucie, FL
| AVNO | 28.70 | 80.75 | 74.0 | 175.2 | Titusville, FL
| %IMP | -169% | -1269%
|
| GFNO | 28.95 | 80.84 | 71.5 | 204.3 | Edgewater, FL
| GFDL | 27.95 | 80.51 | 67.0 | 88.7 | Palm Bay, FL
| %IMP | 24% | 57%
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 90.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.06 | 84.33 | 97.5 | 32.0 | St. Marks, FL
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 September 2004 0000 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 03 September 2004 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Predction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 01 september 2004 0600 UTC to 02 September 2004 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Frances.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 03 September 2004 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 03 September 2004 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 6. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 September 2004 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
