Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 September 2004 1800 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 11 | 38 | 39 | 37 | 45 | 15 | 30 | 82 | 190 | 130
| AVNO | 22 | 55 | 101 | 134 | 118 | 101 | 212 | 323 | 439 | 425
| %IMP | -100% | -45% | -159% | -202% | -162% | -573% | -607% | -294% | -231% | -227%
|
| GFNO | 0 | 42 | 52 | 75 | 80 | 150 | 225 | 318 | 387 | 305
| GFDL | 22 | 60 | 83 | 89 | 78 | 155 | 233 | 346 | 451 | 394
| %IMP | und% | -43% | -60% | -19% | 2% | -3% | -4% | -9% | -17% | -29%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -78 | -71 | -55 | -43 | -31 | -23 | -30 | -2 | 2 | 0
| AVNO | -61 | -54 | -31 | -22 | -11 | -12 | -9 | 26 | 31 | 17
| %IMP | 22% | 24% | 44% | 49% | 65% | 48% | 70% | -1200% | -1450% | und%
|
| GFNO | -4 | -8 | -5 | 0 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 26 | 26 | 26
| GFDL | -4 | -9 | -2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 27 | 30 | 30
| %IMP | 0% | -13% | 60% | und% | 20% | -29% | -300% | -4% | -15% | -15%
|
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| 02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 25.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.26 | 74.38 | 27.0 | 31.3 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.38 | 74.14 | 28.0 | 55.8 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -67% | -78%
|
| GFNO | 24.28 | 74.36 | 28.0 | 34.2 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.45 | 74.17 | 26.5 | 60.1 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 60% | -76%
|
|
03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 35.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.91 | 75.38 | 35.0 | 41.0 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 25.27 | 74.98 | 38.0 | 97.2 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -400% | -137%
|
| GFNO | 25.00 | 75.30 | 36.0 | 53.8 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.22 | 75.09 | 35.0 | 85.9 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 0% | 60%
|
03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 40.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.53 | 76.20 | 42.0 | 48.8 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 25.93 | 75.81 | 47.0 | 96.7 | Near northern tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -350% | -98%
|
| GFNO | 25.42 | 76.03 | 42.5 | 36.2 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.82 | 75.93 | 42.5 | 81.8 | Near norther tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 0% | -126%
|
|
04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 64.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.52 | 78.61 | 66.0 | 41.7 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.72 | 76.74 | 59.0 | 145.6 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -150% | -249%
|
| GFNO | 26.59 | 77.17 | 54.0 | 102.3 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.57 | 77.04 | 54.0 | 115.3 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 0% | -13%
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 82.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.52 | 80.36 | 87.0 | 39.0 | Ft. Pierce, FL
| AVNO | 28.84 | 78.69 | 93.0 | 241.1 | Offshore Cape Canaveral, FL
| %IMP | -156% | -518%
|
| GFNO | 31.74 | 81.26 | 112.5 | 514.7 | Riceboro, GA
| GFDL | 29.87 | 78.98 | 86.0 | 319.6 | Offshore Cape Canaveral, FL
| %IMP | 88% | 38%
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 120.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 September 2004 1800 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 01 September 2004 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 September 2004 1800 UTC.
