Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 September 2004 1200 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 31 | 78 | 78 | 60 | 51 | 40 | 41 | 45 | 50 | 160
| AVNO | 73 | 78 | 98 | 92 | 126 | 127 | 190 | 273 | 393 | 387
| %IMP | -135% | 0% | -26% | -53% | -147% | -218% | -363% | -507% | -686% | -142%
|
| GFNO | 23 | 22 | 46 | 39 | 97 | 132 | 218 | 280 | 402 | 394
| GFDL | 45 | 95 | 81 | 74 | 90 | 82 | 127 | 171 | 265 | 295
| %IMP | -96% | -332% | -76% | -90% | 7% | 38% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 25%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -74 | -79 | -63 | -48 | -25 | -31 | -33 | -20 | 3 | -4
| AVNO | -49 | -65 | -46 | -28 | -9 | -7 | -2 | 7 | 21 | 25
| %IMP | 34% | 18% | 27% | 22% | 64% | 77% | 94% | 65% | -600% | -525%
|
| GFNO | -2 | -17 | -12 | -2 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 32 | 25
| GFDL | -4 | -24 | -15 | -1 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 36 | 25
| %IMP | -100% | -35% | -25% | 50% | 27% | 87% | 0% | -25% | -13% | 0% | -18%
|
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| 02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 31.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.18 | 74.41 | 28.0 | 22.0 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.44 | 74.01 | 30.0 | 69.7 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 57% | -217%
|
| GFNO | 24.21 | 74.39 | 32.0 | 25.9 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.33 | 74.30 | 37.5 | 41.9 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -1100% | -62%
|
|
03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 41.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.91 | 75.48 | 37.5 | 36.5 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 25.40 | 74.99 | 40.5 | 108.0 | Offshore Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 75% | -196%
|
| GFNO | 25.02 | 75.35 | 41.0 | 53.0 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.96 | 75.39 | 46.0 | 45.3 | Near northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -800% | 15%
|
03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 46.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.37 | 76.30 | 44.0 | 36.1 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 25.96 | 75.76 | 47.5 | 101.4 | Near northern tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 25% | -181%
|
| GFNO | 25.43 | 75.90 | 46.0 | 41.8 | Near Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.33 | 75.88 | 51.0 | 33.8 | Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und% | 19%
|
|
04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 70.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.54 | 78.57 | 67.5 | 37.4 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 27.02 | 77.04 | 68.0 | 124.1 | Near Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 20% | -332%
|
| GFNO | 26.60 | 76.94 | 58.0 | 125.2 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.91 | 77.46 | 68.5 | 81.1 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 87% | 35%
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 88.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.08 | 80.11 | 86.5 | 16.0 | Jupiter, FL
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 29.39 | 79.09 | 93.0 | 266.4 | Offshore Cape Canaveral, FL
| GFDL | 29.02 | 79.95 | 100.0 | 203.7 | Near Titusville, FL
| %IMP | -156% | 24%
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 126.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 September 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 01 September 2004 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 September 2004 1200 UTC.
