Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 September 2004 0000 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 59 | 84 | 104 | 100 | 91 | 80 | 37 | 32 | 45 | 30
| AVNO | 22 | 73 | 102 | 127 | 123 | 134 | 119 | 129 | 130 | 141
| %IMP | 63% | 13% | 2% | -27% | -35% | -68% | -222% | -303% | -289% | -370%
|
| GFNO | 24 | 88 | 122 | 153 | 174 | 208 | 230 | 299 | 382 | 485
| GFDL | 45 | 84 | 144 | 161 | 150 | 199 | 208 | 291 | 370 | 488
| %IMP | -88% | 4% | -18% | -5% | 14% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 3% | -1%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -76 | -73 | -78 | -65 | -44 | -29 | -18 | -19 | -16 | -1
| AVNO | -56 | -51 | -65 | -41 | -31 | -12 | -15 | -6 | 2 | 14
| %IMP | 26% | 30% | 17% | 37% | 30% | 59% | 17% | 68% | 87% | -1300%
|
| GFNO | -2 | -1 | -16 | -6 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 23
| GFDL | -11 | -9 | -17 | -13 | -7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 28
| %IMP | -450% | -800% | -6% | -117% | und% | 44% | -150% | 0% | -18% | 22%
|
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| 02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 43.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.64 | 74.13 | 42.5 | 80.4 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.68 | 73.70 | 44.0 | 110.8 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 50% | -38%
|
| GFNO | 24.78 | 73.69 | 41.5 | 119.3 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.04 | 73.61 | 43.5 | 146.4 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | -23%
|
|
03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 53.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.27 | 75.03 | 50.0 | 94.0 | Offshore Cat Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.14 | 75.87 | 68.0 | 173.2 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -314% | -84%
|
| GFNO | 26.12 | 75.05 | 53.5 | 177.7 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.33 | 75.40 | 58.0 | 193.2 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und% | -9%
|
|
03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 58.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.91 | 75.83 | 57.5 | 94.0 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.14 | 75.87 | 68.0 | 117.8 | Near Northern Tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -1900% | -25%
|
| GFNO | 26.12 | 75.05 | 53.5 | 154.6 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.33 | 75.40 | 58.0 | 153.6 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | 1%
|
|
|
04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 82.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.92 | 77.85 | 80.0 | 49.7 | Little Abaco Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.88 | 77.96 | 93.0 | 39.2 | Little Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -450% | 21%
|
| GFNO | 27.24 | 76.29 | 65.0 | 202.1 | Near Tilloo Cay, Bahamas
| GFDL | 27.10 | 76.16 | 66.5 | 209.7 | Near Tilloo Cay, Bahamas
| %IMP | -9% | -4%
|
|
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 100.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.09 | 80.13 | 99.0 | 14.0 | Jupiter, FL
| AVNO | 27.99 | 80.52 | 99.5 | 93.3 | Palm Bay, FL
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 32.17 | 80.80 | 119.0 | 555.2 | Hilton Head Island, SC
| GFDL | No landfall forecast |
| %IMP
|
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 138.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 September 2004 0000 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 01 September 2004 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 September 2004 0000 UTC.
