Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 15 | 70 | 111 | 124 | 145 | 158 | 146 | 135 | 83 | 142
| AVNO | 10 | 47 | 76 | 127 | 131 | 114 | 89 | 109 | 138 | 128
| %IMP | 33% | 33% | 32% | -2% | 10% | 28% | 39% | 19% | -66% | 10%
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| GFNO | 21 | 47 | 69 | 78 | 126 | 180 | 211 | 289 | 360 | 449
| GFDL | 11 | 49 | 80 | 124 | 167 | 224 | 266 | 357 | 449 | 563
| %IMP | 48% | -4% | -16% | -59% | -33% | -24% | -26% | -24% | -25% | -25%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -81 | -76 | -78 | -72 | -53 | -43 | -29 | -23 | -19 | 6
| AVNO | -66 | -59 | -65 | -52 | -38 | -28 | -18 | -9 | -5 | 13
| %IMP | 19% | 22% | 17% | 18% | 28% | 35% | 38% | 61% | 74% | -117%
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| GFNO | -11 | -16 | -29 | -11 | -4 | -4 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 21
| GFDL | 2 | 2 | -12 | -15 | -7 | -3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 20
| %IMP | 82% | 87% | 59% | -36% | -75% | 25% | -400% | 0% | -200% | 5%
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02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 49.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 24.76 | 73.92 | 46.5 | 102.8 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.89 | 73.73 | 50.5 | 125.9 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 67% | -22%
|
| GFNO | 24.56 | 74.10 | 49.5 | 74.2 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.72 | 73.89 | 46.5 | 101.0 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und% | -36%
|
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03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 59.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.49 | 74.91 | 54.5 | 130.1 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.89 | 73.73 | 50.5 | 191.4 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -80% | -47%
|
| GFNO | 25.30 | 74.91 | 49.5 | 104.3 | Offshore Cat Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.49 | 74.87 | 53.0 | 123.2 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 35% | -18%
|
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03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 64.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.05 | 75.66 | 60.5 | 114.4 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.70 | 76.89 | 80.0 | 194.5 | Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -357% | -70%
|
| GFNO | 25.74 | 75.34 | 59.5 | 104.3 | Near Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.86 | 75.33 | 57.0 | 114.4 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -56% | -10%
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04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 88.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.26 | 77.08 | 74.5 | 133.0 | Near Abaco Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 27.07 | 78.48 | 103.0 | 59.1 | Grand Cay, Bahamas
| %IMP | -11% | 56%
|
| GFNO | 26.97 | 76.55 | 69.0 | 168.7 | Near Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.97 | 76.34 | 66.0 | 189.0 | Near Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -16% | -12%
|
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05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 106.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 28.22 | 80.66 | 115.0 | 122.0 | Melbourne, FL
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | 32.45 | 80.50 | 118.0 | 584.0 | Beaufort, SC
| %IMP
|
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06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 144.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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