Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
30 August 2004 1200 UTC
Frances.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 59 | 39 | 24 | 61 | 93 | 116 | 107 | 46 | 10 | 54
| AVNO | 31 | 42 | 56 | 70 | 84 | 56 | 23 | 49 | 51 | 141
| %IMP | 47% | 8% | -133% | -15% | 10% | 52% | 79% | 7% | -410% | -161%
|
| GFNO | 15 | 47 | 46 | 30 | 60 | 60 | 115 | 173 | 259 | 354
| GFDL | 10 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 39 | 54 | 97 | 143 | 223 | 340
| %IMP | 33% | 77% | 67% | 50% | 35% | 10% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 4%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -72 | -77 | -78 | -78 | -75 | -75 | -59 | -47 | -23 | -25
| AVNO | -70 | -72 | -78 | -76 | -76 | -79 | -62 | -47 | -25 | -30
| %IMP | 3% | 6% | 0% | 3% | -1% | -5% | -5% | 0% | -9% | -20%
|
| GFNO | 5 | 1 | -2 | -8 | -6 | -22 | -13 | -7 | 9 | -3
| GFDL | 8 | 6 | -4 | -6 | -13 | -22 | -18 | -2 | 11 | 2
| %IMP | -60% | -500% | -100% | 25% | -117% | 0% | -39% | 71% | -22% | 33%
|
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| 02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 79.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.79 | 74.30 | 86.0 | 90.1 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.01 | 74.49 | 82.5 | 1.5 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 54% | 98%
|
| GFNO | 23.94 | 74.56 | 76.0 | 9.0 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.03 | 74.49 | 76.5 | 3.5 | San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 14% | 61%
|
|
03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 89.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.24 | 76.25 | 98.5 | 96.7 | Central Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.44 | 75.53 | 89.5 | 19.1 | Central Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | 80%
|
| GFNO | 24.51 | 75.56 | 82.0 | 10.8 | Northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 24.80 | 75.60 | 84.0 | 22.2 | Northern tip of Cat Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 27% | -106%
|
|
03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 94.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.24 | 76.25 | 98.5 | 21.7 | Central Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.79 | 76.29 | 94.5 | 39.4 | Southern tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 88% | -82%
|
| GFNO | 24.84 | 76.16 | 85.5 | 29.5 | Southern Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.39 | 76.56 | 90.0 | 56.3 | Northern tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 53% | -91%
|
|
04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 118.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.56 | 78.54 | 117.0 | 34.1 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.33 | 78.83 | 114.0 | 69.5 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -300% | -104%
|
| GFNO | 26.53 | 78.61 | 101.0 | 41.5 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.70 | 78.30 | 102.0 | 14.9 | Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 6% | 67%
|
|
05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 136.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 28.92 | 80.80 | 118.5 | 199.9 | Edgewater, FL
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
|
06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 174.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 30 August 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Frances).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 30 August 2004 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 30 August 2004 1200 UTC.
