Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
07 September 2002 1200 UTC
FAY.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 69. | 100. | 74. | 128. | 146. | 122. | 70. |
| AVNO | 15. | 78. | 56. | 67. | 90. | 162. | 160. |
| %IMP | 78% | 22% | 24% | 48% | 38% | -33% | -129%
|
| GFNO | No forecast
available
| GFAL | No forecast
available
| %IMP
|
| AVNN | -7. | 8. | 4. | 1. | 1. | 2. | 1. |
| AVNO | -2. | 3. | 2. | 2. | 1. | 2. | -1. |
| %IMP | 71% | 63% | 50% | -100% | 0% | 0% | 0%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO No forecast available
| GFAL No forecast available
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 1. | 10. | 10. | 10. | 11. | 13. | 14. |
| SHIP | 6. | 20. | 26. | 33. | 41. | 48. | 53. |
| %IMP | -500% | -100% | -160% | -230% | -273% | -269% | -279%
|
| DSNO | 7. | 17. |
| DSHP | 7. | 17. |
| %IMP | 0% | 0%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 07 September 2002 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Fay).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 07 September 2002 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 07 September 2002 1200 UTC.
