Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 September 2003 1200 UTC
Fabian.
Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 25 | 71 | 114 | 151 | 203 | 264 | 318 | 372 | 500 | 701
| AVNO | 35 | 30 | 38 | 73 | 93 | 161 | 233 | 329 | 445 | 612
| %IMP | -40% | 52% | 67% | 52% | 54% | 31% | 27% | 12% | 11% | 31%
|
| GFNO | 25 | 64 | 104 | 145 | 184 | 242 | 317 | 403 | 506 | 631
| GFDL | 24 | 71 | 119 | 178 | 249 | 306 | 385 | 477 | 600 | 739
| %IMP | 4% | -11% | -14% | -23% | -35% | -26% | -21% | -18% | -19% | -17%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -101 | -96 | -88 | -82 | -85 | -73 | -81 | -71 | -66 | -64
| AVNO | -91 | -84 | -76 | -72 | -73 | -63 | -71 | -62 | -56 | -55
| %IMP | 10% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14%
|
| GFNO | -16 | -17 | -9 | -7 | -15 | -1 | -10 | -6 | -15 | -14
| GFDL | -21 | -16 | -12 | -10 | -13 | -6 | -11 | -6 | -4 | -11
| %IMP | -31% | 6% | -33% | -43% | 13% | -500% | -10% | 0% | 73% | 21%
|
| SHNO | -7 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 4 | -13 | -11 | -16 | -23
| SHIP | -8 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -11 | -9 | -25 | -19 | -22 | -25
| %IMP | -14% | und% | 71% | 91% | -1000% | -125% | -92% | -73% | -38% | -9%
|
| DSNO | -7 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 4 | -13 | -11 | -16 | -23
| DSHP | -8 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -11 | -9 | -25 | -19 | -22 | -25
| %IMP | -14% | und% | 71% | 91% | -1000% | -125% | -92% | -73% | -38% | -9%
| | ||||||||||
| 05/2000 UTC 32.3N 65.1W closest approach to Bermuda 104.0 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 32.13 | 69.25 | 114.0 | 390.5 | Well offshore Bermuda
| AVNO | 32.14 | 68.38 | 113.5 | 308.8 | Well offshore Bermuda
| %IMP | 5% | 21%
|
|
| GFNO | 32.40 | 70.00 | 108.0 | 458.2 | Well offshore Bermuda
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| | ||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 September 2003 120 UTC (Hurricane Fabian).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 01 September 2003 120 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 September 2003 120 UTC.
