Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 September 2003 0000 UTC
Fabian.
Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 43 | 107 | 144 | 174 | 250 | 347 | 419 | 452 | 416 | 427
| AVNO | 33 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 62 | 107 | 185 | 267 | 382 | 518
| %IMP | 23% | 71% | 94% | 100% | 75% | 69% | 56% | 41% | 8% | -21%
|
| GFNO | 31 | 21 | 24 | 53 | 128 | 182 | 250 | 289 | 355 | 445
| GFDL | 39 | 21 | 39 | 15 | 63 | 111 | 170 | 220 | 288 | 408
| %IMP | -26% | 0% | -63% | 72% | 51% | 39% | 22% | 24% | 19% | 8%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -98 | -106 | -99 | -91 | -85 | -87 | -77 | -85 | -70 | -65
| AVNO | -91 | -91 | -85 | -79 | -75 | -77 | -67 | -75 | -64 | -59
| %IMP | 7% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 9%
|
| GFNO | -10 | -21 | -14 | -10 | -8 | -11 | -3 | -13 | -11 | -12
| GFDL | -18 | -21 | -16 | -13 | -6 | -10 | -7 | -16 | -15 | -20
| %IMP | -80% | 0% | -14% | -30% | 25% | -10% | -133% | -23% | -36% | -67%
|
| SHNO | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 0 | -17 | -17 | -21
| SHIP | 5 | -3 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -15 | -10 | -26 | -23 | -23
| %IMP | 17% | und% | 0% | 100% | 71% | -200% | und% | -53% | -35% | -10%
|
| DSNO | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 0 | -17 | -17 | -21
| DSHP | 5 | -3 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -15 | -10 | -26 | -23 | -23
| %IMP | 17% | und% | 0% | 100% | 71% | -200% | und% | -53% | -35% | -10%
| | ||||||||||
| 05/2000 UTC 32.3N 65.1W closest approach to Bermuda 116.0 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 32.78 | 69.46 | 116.5 | 411.8 | Well offshore Bermuda
| AVNO | No landfall
forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 32.02 | 69.54 | 115.5 | 418.8 | Well offshore Bermuda
| GFDL | 31.68 | 68.89 | 114.5 | 363.7 | Well offshore Bermuda
| %IMP | -200% | 13%
| | ||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 September 2003 0000 UTC (Hurricane Fabian).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 01 September 2003 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 01 September 2003 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 September 2003 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
