Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
31 August 2003 1800 UTC
Fabian.

Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNNNo forecast available
AVNONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNO 32 54 63 33 64 93165177205310
GFDL 31 35 38 83159206284294304386
%IMP 3%35%40%-152%-148%-122%-72%-66%-48%-25%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNNNo forecast available
AVNONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNO-17-19-15-12-10 -9 -4 -8-12-14
GFDL -9-17 -9 -9 -9-11 -7-12-14-17
%IMP47%11%40%25%10%-22%-75%-50%-17%-21%
SHNONo forecast available
SHIPNo forecast available
%IMP
DSNONo forecast available
DSHPNo forecast available
%IMP

Landfall forecasts
05/2000 UTC 32.3N 65.1W closest approach to Bermuda 122.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNNNo forecast available
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDLNo landfall forecast
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 31 August 2003 1800 UTC (Hurricane Fabian).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 31 August 2003 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 31 August 2003 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 31 August 2003 1800 UTC.