Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
31 August 2006 1200 UTC
Ernesto.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 19 | 36 | 63 | 178 | 421 | 414 | 283 | | |
| AVNO | 22 | 18 | 76 | 171 | 329 | 191 | 173 | | |
| %IMP | -16% | 50% | -21% | 4% | 22% | 54% | 39% | | |
| GFNO | 35 | 52 | 35 | 77 | 263 | 209 | 297 | | |
| GFDL | 36 | 57 | 54 | 124 | 335 | 314 | 357 | | |
| %IMP | -3% | -10% | -54% | -60% | -27% | -50% | -20% | | |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -19 | 8 | -3 | -14 | -10 | -3 | -12 | | |
| AVNO | -21 | 9 | -1 | -14 | -4 | -1 | -7 | | |
| %IMP | -11% | -13% | 67% | 0% | 60% | 67% | -42% | | |
| GFNO | 0 | 16 | 16 | -4 | 13 | 15 | 8 | | |
| GFDL | -2 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 13 | 16 | 10 | | |
| %IMP | und% | 0% | -44% | -75% | 0% | -7% | -25% | | |
| | ||||||||||
| 01/0340 UTC 33.9N 78.1W Oak Island, NC, 15.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 33.93 | 78.40 | 15.0 | 27.9 | Ocean Isle Beach, NC
| AVNO | 33.87 | 78.38 | 15.5 | 26.0 | Ocean Isle Beach, NC
| %IMP | 33% | 7%
| GFNO | 33.87 | 78.23 | 16.5 | 12.4 | Holden Beach, NC
| GFDL | 33.95 | 78.39 | 16.5 | 27.3 | Ocean Isle Beach, NC
| %IMP | 0% | -110%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 31 August 2006 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ernesto).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 31 August 2006 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 31 August 2006 1200 UTC.
