Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
28 August 2006 1800 UTC
Ernesto.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 85 | 92 | 60 | 60 | 58 | 67 | 114 | 213 | 284 | 403
| AVNO | 63 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 37 | 44 | 71 | 78 | 104 | 121
| %IMP | 26% | 100% | 75% | 50% | 36% | 34% | 38% | 73% | 63% | 70%
| GFNO | 76 | 46 | 37 | 11 | 67 | 107 | 165 | 188 | 193 | 190
| GFDL | 108 | 60 | 70 | 69 | 131 | 182 | 256 | 275 | 367 | 506
| %IMP | -42% | -30% | -89% | -527% | -96% | -70% | -5% | -46% | -90% | -166%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -7 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -14 | -28 | -18 | 1 | -1 | 18
| AVNO | -3 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -12 | -27 | -17 | 8 | 10 | 14
| %IMP | 57% | -29% | 0% | 60% | 14% | 4% | 6% | -700% | -900% | 22%
| GFNO | 0 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 5 | -5 | -11
| GFDL | 6 | 19 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 15 | 27 | -1 | -20 | 17
| %IMP | und% | -138% | -92% | -11% | -50% | 44% | 21% | 80% | -300% | -55%
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| 30/0300 UTC 24.9N 80.6W Plantation Key, FL, 33 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.60 | 80.30 | 36.0 | 83.4 | Perrine, FL
| AVNO | 24.84 | 80.75 | 33.0 | 16.5 | Layton, FL
| %IMP | 100% | 80%
| GFNO | 25.04 | 80.47 | 35.5 | 116.3 | Tavernier, FL
| GFDL | 24.88 | 80.70 | 37.5 | 10.3 | Islamorada, FL
| %IMP | -80% | 91%
|
30/0500 UTC 25.2N 80.7W Southwestern Miami-Dade County, FL, 35 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.60 | 80.30 | 36.0 | 59.9 | Perrine, FL
| AVNO | 25.27 | 80.92 | 36.5 | 23.4 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | -50% | 61%
| GFNO | 25.23 | 80.56 | 37.0 | 14.5 | Florida City, FL
| GFDL | 25.13 | 80.82 | 39.5 | 15.2 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | -125% | -5%
|
01/0340 UTC 33.9N 78.1W Oak Island, NC, 81.75 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 34.52 | 76.50 | 91.5 | 162.3 | Atlantic Beach, NC
| AVNO | 33.14 | 79.11 | 78.0 | 126.0 | Georgetown, SC
| %IMP | 62% | 22%
| GFNO | 33.30 | 79.22 | 83.5 | 123.2 | Georgetown, SC
| GFDL | 32.59 | 80.25 | 81.5 | 247.2 | Edisto Beach, SC
| %IMP | 86% | -101%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 28 August 2006 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Ernesto).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 28 August 2006 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 28 August 2006 1800 UTC.
