Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
28 August 2006 1200 UTC
Ernesto.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN105130102128145169151181204192
AVNO 43 33 30 30 66 88111106112169
%IMP59%75%71%77%54%48%26%41%45%12%
GFNO 68 80 70 89148159260388552716
GFDL103125 74 60 31 15 84189328605
%IMP-51%-56%-6%33%79%91%68%51%41%16%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 0 -4 -4 -3 -3-23-28 12 9 8
AVNO 6 -2 -8 -1 -4-24-33 2 1 6
%IMPund%50%-100%67%-25%-4%-11%83%89%25%
GFNO 15 6 21 29 19 6 1 -3-20 12
GFDL 12 10 32 18 34 21 21 15-19 12
%IMP20%-67%-52%38%-79%-250%-2000%-400% 5% 0%

Landfall forecasts

30/0300 UTC 24.9N 80.6W Plantation Key, FL, 39 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN25.7880.1138.0109.5Miami Beach, FL
AVNO24.8080.7937.022.1Layton, FL
%IMP-100% 80%
GFNO24.9780.6238.5 8.0Islamorada, FL
GFDL25.6680.2441.591.9Kendall, FL
%IMP-400%-1049%
30/0500 UTC 25.2N 80.7W Southwestern Miami-Dade County, FL, 41 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN25.7880.1138.087.5Miami Beach, FL
AVNO25.1081.0240.034.0Flamingo, FL
%IMP 67% 61%
GFNO25.1680.8540.515.7Flamingo, FL
GFDL25.6680.2441.568.9Kendall, FL
%IMP0%-339%
01/0340 UTC 33.9N 78.1W Oak Island, NC, 87.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN34.9976.1490.5216.6Portsmouth, NC
AVNO32.7479.83 81.5205.9Sullivans Island, SC
%IMP-127%5%
GFNO32.4780.60 80.5281.6Hilton Head Island, SC
GFDL33.1079.30 84.0142.3McClellanville, SC
%IMP 48% 49%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 28 August 2006 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ernesto).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 28 August 2006 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 28 August 2006 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 28 August 2006 1200 UTC.