Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
27 August 2006 1800 UTC
Ernesto.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 87 | 73 | 45 | 38 | 50 | 41 | 88 | 117 | 189 | 213
| AVNO | 33 | 30 | 63 | 78 | 39 | 45 | 93 | 152 | 200 | 227
| %IMP | 62% | 59% | -40% | -105% | 22% | -10% | -6% | -30% | -6% | -7%
|
| GFNO | 39 | 25 | 33 | 88 | 144 | 168 | 257 | 308 | 440 | 523
| GFDL | 33 | 30 | 23 | 134 | 165 | 219 | 315 | 384 | 494 | 585
| %IMP | 15% | -20% | 30% | -52% | -15% | -30% | -23% | -25% | -25% | -12%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -10 | -7 | -5 | -5 | -8 | -6 | -11 | -21 | -11 | 3
| AVNO | -8 | -5 | -6 | -11 | -9 | -5 | -14 | -30 | -19 | -5
| %IMP | 20% | 29% | -20% | -120% | -13% | 17% | -28% | -43% | -73% | -67%
|
| GFNO | 17 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 45 | 53 | 30 | 14 | 5 | -9
| GFDL | 22 | 32 | 20 | 28 | 29 | 45 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 2
| %IMP | -29% | -33% | -11% | -33% | 36% | 15% | -17% | 71% | 20% | 78%
| | ||||||||||
| 28/1115 UTC 19.9N 75.5W Playa Cazonal, Cuba, 17.25 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.98 | 76.57 | 18.5 | 112.1 | Near Bayamo, Granma, Cuba
| AVNO | 19.92 | 75.66 | 16.0 | 16.9 | Near Santiago de Cuba, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
| %IMP | 0% | 85%
|
| GFNO | 19.93 | 75.88 | 19.5 | 39.8 | Santiago de Cuba, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
| GFDL | 19.97 | 76.07 | 20.0 | 60.0 | Near Santiago de Cuba, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
| %IMP | -22% | -51%
|
|
30/0300 UTC 24.9N 80.6W Plantation Key, FL, 57 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.80 | 80.90 | 54.5 | 32.2 | Duck Key, FL
| AVNO | 25.03 | 80.53 | 53.0 | 16.1 | Tavernier, FL
| %IMP | -60% | 50%
|
| GFNO | 24.50 | 81.93 | 59.0 | 141.4 | Key West, FL
| GFDL | 24.40 | 82.10 | 60.0 | 151.3 | Key West, FL
| %IMP | -33% | -7%
|
|
30/0500 UTC 25.2N 80.7W Southwestern Miami-Dade County, FL, 59 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.11 | 81.19 | 58.0 | 50.3 | Flamingo, FL
| AVNO | 25.14 | 80.66 | 54.5 | 7.8 | Florida City, FL
| %IMP | -350% | 84%
|
| GFNO | 26.51 | 82.43 | 73.5 | 226.1 | Captiva, FL
| GFDL | 27.74 | 82.75 | 85.5 | 348.1 | St. Petersburg, FL
| %IMP | -83% | -54%
|
|
01/0340 UTC 33.9N 78.1W Oak Island, NC, 105.75 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 34.07 | 77.92 | 115.5 | 25.1 | Kure Beach, NC
| AVNO | 33.78 | 77.97 | 114.5 | 17.9 | Smith Island, NC
| %IMP | 10% | 29%
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 27 August 2006 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Ernesto).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 27 August 2006 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 27 August 2006 1800 UTC.
