Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 August 2003 1800 UTC
Erika.


Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSNNo forecast available
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSNNo forecast available
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
SHNONo forecast available
SHIPNo forecast available
%IMP
DSNONo forecast available
DSHPNo forecast available
%IMP

Landfall forecasts

16/1030 UTC 25.3N 97.4W Boca San Rafael, Mexico 40.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
GFSN24.3997.6953.5105.2Isla Las Vaquitas, Tamaulipas, Mexico
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDLNo landfall forecast
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 August 2003 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Erika).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 14 August 2003 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 August 2003 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 August 2003 1800 UTC.