Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 July 2005 1200 UTC
Emily.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 24 | 55 | | | | | | | |
| AVNO | 46 | 67 | | | | | | | |
| %IMP | -92% | -22% | | | | | | |
|
| GFNO | 46 | 100 | 219 | | | | | |
| GFDL | 54 | 117 | 242 | | | | | | |
| %IMP | -17% | -17% | -11% | | | | | | |
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -77 | -68 | | | | | | |
| AVNO | -44 | -38 | | | | | | | |
| %IMP | 43% | 44% | | | | | | | |
|
| GFNO | -8 | -12 | -6 | | | | | | |
| GFDL | -7 | -16 | -6 | | | | | | |
| %IMP | 13% | -25% | 0% | | | | | | |
|
| | ||||||||||
| 20/1200 UTC 24.8N 97.6W Near San Fernando, Mexico, 24.0 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.12 | 97.47 | 26.5 | 37.9 | Madre, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 23.97 | 97.71 | 24.0 | 92.9 | Soto La Marina, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFDL | 23.90 | 97.70 | 21.0 | 100.5 | Las Pesca, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | und% | -8%
| | ||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 July 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Emily).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 July 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 July 2005 1200 UTC.
