Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
18 July 2005 1800 UTC
Emily.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 35 | 55 | 87 | 83 | 61 | | | | |
| AVNO | 63 | 104 | 107 | 61 | 129 | | | | |
| %IMP | -80% | -89% | -23% | 27% | -111% | | | |
|
| GFNO | 44 | 59 | 89 | 156 | 284 | | | |
| GFDL | 15 | 35 | 67 | 135 | 280 | | | | |
| %IMP | 66% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 1% | | | | |
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -46 | -49 | -71 | -27 | -13 | | | | |
| AVNO | -35 | -28 | -42 | -15 | -9 | | | | |
| %IMP | 24% | 43% | 41% | 44% | 31% | | | | |
|
| GFNO | -4 | 2 | -11 | -10 | 7 | | | | |
| GFDL | 3 | 19 | -12 | -12 | 8 | | | | |
| %IMP | 25% | -850% | -9% | -20% | -14% | | | | |
|
| | ||||||||||
| 20/1200 UTC 24.8N 97.6W Near San Fernando, Mexico, 42.0 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.15 | 97.68 | 47.0 | 39.7 | Madre, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| AVNO | 24.84 | 97.76 | 46.5 | 16.7 | Los Americanos, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | 10% | 58%
|
| GFNO | 23.73 | 97.70 | 42.0 | 119.3 | La Pesca, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFDL | 23.92 | 97.71 | 42.0 | 98.4 | Madre, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | 0% | 18%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 18 July 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Emily).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 18 July 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 18 July 2005 1800 UTC.
