Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
17 July 2005 0000 UTC
Emily.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 138 | 181 | 232 | 253 | 204 | 135 | 88 | 67 | |
| AVNO | 46 | 54 | 22 | 63 | 67 | 44 | 164 | 273 | |
| %IMP | 67% | 70% | 91% | 75% | 67% | 67% | -86% | -307% | |
|
| GFNO | 39 | 46 | 23 | 30 | 35 | 78 | 131 | 155 | 337 |
| GFDL | 0 | 22 | 80 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 127 | 245 | 625 |
| %IMP | 100% | 52% | -248% | -167% | -223% | -3% | 3% | -58% | -85% |
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -95 | -82 | -34 | -45 | -50 | -79 | -82 | -30 | |
| AVNO | -85 | -71 | -3 | -23 | -18 | -49 | -71 | -32 | |
| %IMP | 11% | 13% | 91% | 49% | 64% | 38% | 13% | -7% | |
|
| GFNO | -6 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 16 | -7 | -28 | -3 | 9 |
| GFDL | -10 | -2 | 0 | 18 | 14 | -11 | -26 | -3 | 3 |
| %IMP | -67% | 67% | 100% | 14% | 12% | -57% | 7% | 0% | 33% |
|
| | ||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.80 | 87.50 | 24.0 | 56.5 | Vigia Chico, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.03 | 87.43 | 29.5 | 30.2 | Boca Paila, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 85% | 47%
|
| GFNO | 20.57 | 87.11 | 29.5 | 42.6 | Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.03 | 87.53 | 31.0 | 32.9 | Boda Paila, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 50% | 23%
|
|
20/1200 UTC 24.8N 97.6W Near San Fernando, Mexico, 84.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 23.97 | 97.74 | 81.5 | 93.3 | Soto la Marina, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| AVNO | 24.03 | 97.69 | 79.0 | 86.0 | El Mezquite, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | 43% | 8%
|
| GFNO | 25.50 | 97.27 | 78.0 | 84.6 | El Rabon, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFDL | 24.02 | 97.78 | 80.0 | 87.5 | Las Guayabas, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | 33% | -3%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 17 July 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Emily).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 17 July 2005 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 15 July 2005 0600 UTC to 16 July 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Emily.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 17 July 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 17 July 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 17 July 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 17 July 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 17 July 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
