Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
16 July 2005 1800 UTC
Emily.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 149 | 220 | 295 | 356 | 349 | 327 | 321 | 436 | |
| AVNO | 175 | 229 | 259 | 283 | 319 | 251 | 313 | 405 | |
| %IMP | -17% | -4% | 12% | 21% | 9% | 23% | 2% | 7% | |
|
| GFNO | 59 | 76 | 100 | 143 | 157 | 132 | 188 | 364 | |
| GFDL | 84 | 130 | 176 | 240 | 308 | 348 | 421 | 660 | |
| %IMP | -42% | -71% | -76% | -68% | -96% | -164% | -124% | -81% | |
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -103 | -90 | -89 | -34 | -51 | -52 | -81 | -55 | |
| AVNO | -92 | -73 | -88 | -16 | -36 | -26 | -58 | -54 | |
| %IMP | 11% | 19% | 1% | 53% | 29% | 50% | 28% | 2% | |
|
| GFNO | -27 | -4 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 16 | -19 | -29 | |
| GFDL | -23 | -14 | -28 | 8 | 4 | 14 | -58 | -31 | |
| %IMP | 15% | -250% | -833% | 53% | 50% | 12% | -205% | -7% | |
|
| | ||||||||||
| 18/0630 UTC 20.3N 87.4W Near Tulum, Mexico, 36.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.40 | 87.92 | 30.0 | 218.0 | Near Chetumal, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 18.33 | 87.85 | 30.5 | 223.9 | Near Chetumal, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 8% | -3%
|
| GFNO | 19.50 | 87.65 | 35.0 | 92.6 | Santa Rosa, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 18.84 | 87.62 | 33.0 | 162.7 | Rio Indio, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -133% | -76%
|
|
20/1200 UTC 24.8N 97.6W Near San Fernando, Mexico, 90.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.80 | 97.70 | 84.0 | 333.5 | Cabo Rojito, Veracruz, Mexico
| AVNO | 21.92 | 97.71 | 83.5 | 320.2 | El Tular, Veracruz, Mexico
| %IMP | -8% | 4%
|
| GFNO | 23.55 | 97.70 | 81.0 | 139.2 | Tepeguahe, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFDL | 21.18 | 97.37 | 89.0 | 402.9 | Galindo, Veracruz, Mexico
| %IMP | 89% | -189%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 16 July 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Emily).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 16 July 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 16 July 2005 1800 UTC.
