Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 September 2002 1800 UTC
EDOUARD.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN24.40.48.147.158.
AVNO0.36.22.117.72.
%IMP100%10%54%20%54%
GFNO67.84.140.66.121.
GFAL71.81.140.44.116.
%IMP-6%4%0%33%4%
AVNN-15.-20.-11.-9.-2.
AVNO-11.-20.-11.-8.-4.
%IMP27%0%0%11%-100%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFNO5.-3.0.15.19.
GFAL3.-1.2.18.19.
%IMP40%67%und%-20%0%
SHNO16.21.33.41.42.
SHIP16.22.35.45.47.
%IMP0%-5%-6%-10%-12%
DSNO16.21.33.15.9.
DSHP16.22.35.15.9.
%IMP0%-5%-6%0%0%

Landfall forecasts
05/0045UTC 29.4N 81.1W Near Ormond Beach, FL 30.75 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN29.1480.9731.531.5 Port Orange, FL
AVAL29.3381.0832.58.0 Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
%IMP-133%75%
GFNO
GFAL29.3681.0823.04.8 Flagler Beach, FL
%IMP-35%-37%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 September 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Edouard).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 03 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 September 2002 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 September 2002 1800 UTC.