Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 July 2005 1800 UTC
Dennis.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 99 | 135 | 136 | 158 | 123 | 79 | 121 | 214 | 191 | 159
| AVNO | 23 | 49 | 81 | 81 | 83 | 73 | 56 | 78 | 219 | 420
| %IMP | 77% | 64% | 40% | 49% | 33% | 8% | 54% | 64% | -15% | -164%
|
| GFNO | 53 | 116 | 160 | 259 | 397 | 476 | 607 | 724 | 796 | 799
| GFDL | 15 | 97 | 131 | 232 | 360 | 447 | 526 | 658 | 660 | 698
| %IMP | 72% | 16% | 18% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 13%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -77 | -67 | 7 | 1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1
| AVNO | -67 | -50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -3 | 0 | 4
| %IMP | 13% | 25% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 100% | und% | -200% | 0% | -300% |
|
| GFNO | -22 | -1 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 12
| GFDL | -33 | -13 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 12
| %imp | -50% | -1200% | -71% | -14% | 25% | -71% | -300% | 23% | 18% | 0%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 10/1930 UTC 30.4N 87.1W Santa Rosa Island, FL, 25.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.40 | 88.35 | 31.5 | 119.8 | Dauphin Island, AL
| AVNO | 30.26 | 87.78 | 26.5 | 67.0 | Gulf Shores, AL
| %IMP | 83% | 44%
|
| GFNO | 30.36 | 88.45 | 26.0 | 129.5 | Dauphin Island, AL
| GFDL | 30.27 | 88.29 | 26.5 | 115.0 | Pascagoula, MS
| %IMP | -100% | 11%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 July 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Dennis).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 July 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 July 2005 1800 UTC.
