Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 July 2005 1200 UTC
Dennis.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 114 | 158 | 214 | 153 | 200 | 230 | 199 | 221 | 130 |
| AVNO | 0 | 24 | 78 | 91 | 111 | 85 | 91 | 144 | 243 |
| %IMP | 100% | 85% | 64% | 41% | 44% | 63% | 34% | 55% | -87% |
|
| GFNO | 104 | 195 | 245 | 308 | 440 | 557 | 614 | 778 | 873 | 903
| GFDL | 30 | 81 | 146 | 202 | 309 | 408 | 486 | 605 | 687 | 737
| %IMP | 71% | 58% | 40% | 34% | 30% | 27% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 18%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -61 | -79 | -5 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| AVNO | -58 | -66 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | 0 |
| %IMP | 5% | 16% | 80% | 50% | 50% | 0% | -50% | -100% | 100% |
|
| GFNO | -17 | -31 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 7
| GFDL | -18 | -10 | 48 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 7
| %imp | -6% | 68% | -7% | -100% | 20% | 60% | 33% | 40% | 6% | 0%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 10/1930 UTC 30.4N 87.1W Santa Rosa Island, FL, 31.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.43 | 88.79 | 39.0 | 162.0 | Biloxi, MS
| AVNO | 30.39 | 87.46 | 34.0 | 34.5 | Pensacola, FL
| %IMP | 67% | 79%
|
| GFNO | 30.23 | 89.79 | 34.5 | 258.7 | Slidell, LA
| GFDL | 30.40 | 88.62 | 35.5 | 145.7 | Pascagoula, MS
| %IMP | -33% | 44%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 July 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Dennis).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 July 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 07 July 2005 1800 UTC to 08 July 2005 1200 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Dennis.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 09 July 2005 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 09 July 2005 1200 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [none available]
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 09 July 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 09 July 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [none available]
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 July 2005 1200 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
