Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
31 August 1999 1200 UTC
DENNIS.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 18. | 70. | 45. | 38. | 38. | 100. | 202. | 271. | 364. | 352.
| AVAL | 29. | 35. | 44. | 45. | 65. | 72. | 111. | 186. | 251. | 246.
| %IMP | -61% | 50% | 2% | -18% | -71% | 28% | 45% | 39% | 31% | 30%
|
| GFNO | 59. | 42. | 148. | 262. | 286. | 397. | 512. | 611. | 574. | 422.
| GFAL | 56. | 56. | 134. | 262. | 293. | 356. | 497. | 574. | 563. | 466.
| %IMP | 5% | -33% | 9% | 0% | -2% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 2% | -10%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -5. | -7. | -6. | 2. | -4. | -7. | -7. | -11. | -23. | -13.
| AVAL | -6. | -3. | 0. | -4. | 0. | -2. | -3. | -4. | -18. | -13.
| %IMP | -20% | 57% | 100% | -100% | 100% | 71% | 57% | 64% | 22% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 3. | 10. | 9. | 14. | 27. | 17. | 32. | -3. | -2. | 7.
| GFAL | 2. | 9. | 5. | 10. | 21. | 27. | 31. | -4. | -10. | 1.
| %IMP | 33% | 10% | 44% | 29% | 22% | -59% | -3% | -33% | -400% | 86%
|
| SHNO | -4. | 1. | -3. | -2. | -5. | -3. | -8. | -15. | -11. | 7.
| SHAL | -4. | 1. | -3. | -4. | -7. | -6. | -12. | -19. | -16. | 1.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 0% | -100% | -40% | -100% | -50% | -27% | -45% | 86%
|
| DSNO | -4. | 1. | -3. | -2. | -5. | -3. | -8. | -15. | -11. | 7.
| DSAL | -4. | 1. | -3. | -4. | -7. | -6. | -12. | -19. | -16. | 1.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 0% | -100% | -40% | -100% | -50% | -27% | -45% | 86%
| | ||||||||||
| 04/2100UTC 34.8N 76.5W Cape Lookout National Seashore, NC 105 h into forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 35.71 | 75.50 | 92.0 | 135.8 | Rodanthe, NC
| AVAL | 35.23 | 75.53 | 94.0 | 100.4 | Buxton, NC
| %IMP | 15% | 26%
|
| GFNO | 32.49 | 80.59 | 90.0 | 457.1 | Beaufort, SC
| GFAL | 32.70 | 79.92 | 87.5 | 392.7 | Charleston, SC
| %IMP | -17% | 14%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 31 August 1999 1200 UTC (Hurricane Dennis).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 31 August 1999 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 31 August 1999 1200 UTC.
