Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Debby.

Quicktime movie of DLM wind analyses
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data initial increments

Surveillance flights

August 20, 2000	August 21, 2000
August 22, 2000	August 23, 2000

Assessments for each forecast time at

August 19, 2000					18 Z
August 20, 2000	00 Z		06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
August 21, 2000	00 Z*		06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
August 22, 2000	00 Z		06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
August 23, 2000	00 Z*		06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
August 24, 2000	00 Z*		06 Z	12 Z

* Synoptic surveillance nominal times

Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for three Hurricane Debby synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for the three Hurricane Debby synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 2. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Debby at Barbuda, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

Figure 3. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Debby at St.-Barthelemy, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

Figure 4. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Debby at Virgin Gorda, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

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