Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 August 2000 1800 UTC
DEBBY.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 22. | 114. | 268.
| AVAL | 131. | 287. | 318.
| %IMP | -495% | -152% | -19%
|
| GFNO | 21. | 146. | 336.
| GFAL | 25. | 115. | 321.
| %IMP | -19% | 21% | 4%
|
| VBNO | 161. | 388. | 638.
| VBAL | 153. | 382. | 618.
| %IMP | 5% | 2% | 3%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -33. | -22. | -7.
| AVAL | -30. | -20. | -11.
| %IMP | 9% | 9% | -57%
|
| GFNO | 19. | 31. | 56.
| GFAL | 22. | 23. | 59.
| %IMP | -16% | 26% | -5%
|
| SHNO | 0. | 16. | 33.
| SHAL | -1. | 13. | 29.
| %IMP | und% | 19% | 12%
|
| DSNO | 0. | 16. | 33.
| DSAL | -1. | 13. | 29.
| %IMP | und% | 19% | 12%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 September 2000 1800 UTC (Hurricane Debby).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 22 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 September 2000 1800 UTC.
