Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
21 August 2000 1800 UTC
DEBBY.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 161. | 197. | 207. | 129. | 140.
| AVAL | 134. | 161. | 209. | 129. | 43.
| %IMP | 17% | 18% | -1% | 0% | 69%
|
| GFNO | 119. | 167. | 144. | 133. | 283.
| GFAL | 109. | 228. | 255. | 190. | 77.
| %IMP | 8% | -37% | -77% | -43% | 73%
|
| VBNO | 89. | 185. | 190. | 211. | 233.
| VBAL | 78. | 158. | 161. | 191. | 285.
| %IMP | 12% | 15% | 15% | 9% | -22%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -27. | -33. | -36. | -23. | -6.
| AVAL | -29. | -32. | -35. | -22. | -8.
| %IMP | -7% | 3% | 3% | 4% | -33%
|
| GFNO | 9. | 22. | 20. | 40. | 50.
| GFAL | -8. | -9. | 11. | 19. | 38.
| %IMP | 11% | 59% | 45% | 53% | 24%
|
| SHNO | -1. | -2. | -7. | 6. | 21.
| SHAL | -2. | -4. | -10. | 1. | 15.
| %IMP | -100% | -100% | -43% | 83% | 29%
|
| DSNO | -1. | -2. | -21. | -12. | 3.
| DSAL | -2. | -4. | -22. | -13. | 1.
| %IMP | -100% | -100% | -5% | -8% | 67%
| | ||||||||||
22/0600 UTC 17.5N 61.7W near Barbuda 12 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 16.24 | 61.35 | 7.5 | 144.9 | Sainte-Anne, Guadeloupe
| AVAL | 16.57 | 61.44 | 8.0 | 107.0 | Pointe de la Grande Vigie, Guadeloupe
| %IMP | 11% | 26% |
|
| GFNO | 16.32 | 61.24 | 9.0 | 139.9 | St. Francois, Guadeloupe
| GFAL | 16.64 | 61.50 | 9.5 | 97.9 | Near Guadeloupe
| %IMP | 17% | 30%
|
| VBNO | 16.66 | 61.43 | 11.0 | 97.6 | Near Guadeloupe
| VBAL | 16.92 | 62.14 | 14.0 | 79.6 | Plymouth, Montserrat
| %IMP | -100% | 18%
|
|
| 22/0915 UTC 17.9N 62.8W near St.-Barthelemy 16.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 16.24 | 61.35 | 7.5 | 240.3 | Sainte-Anne, Guadeloupe
| AVAL | 16.73 | 62.13 | 10.0 | 148.1 | Plymouth, Montserrat
| %IMP | 29% | 38%
|
| GFNO | 16.53 | 62.24 | 12.5 | 163.4 | Plymouth, Montserrat
| GFAL | 16.69 | 62.14 | 11.5 | 151.6 | Plymouth, Montserrat
| %IMP | -27% | 7%
|
| VBNO | 16.78 | 62.24 | 14.0 | 137.9 | Plymouth, Montserrat
| VBAL | 17.02 | 62.55 | 15.5 | 104.9 | Red Cliff, Nevis
| %IMP | 67% | 24%
|
|
| 22/1500 UTC 18.5N 64.4W near Virgin Gorda 21 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | 16.96 | 65.00 | 19.5 | 182.5 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 17.45 | 65.00 | 19.0 | 132.8 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| %IMP | -33% | 27%
|
| GFNO | 17.23 | 65.04 | 23.0 | 156.5 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| GFAL | 16.76 | 64.91 | 20.5 | 200.7 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| %IMP | 75% | -28%
|
| VBNO | 17.22 | 65.03 | 24.5 | 157.0 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| VBAL | 17.53 | 64.93 | 24.5 | 121.4 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| %IMP | 0% | 23%
|
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 21 August 2000 1800 UTC (Hurricane Debby).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 21 August 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 August 2000 1800 UTC.
