Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
21 August 2000 0600 UTC
DEBBY.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 164. | 140. | 85. | 168. | 120. | 88.
| AVAL | 70. | 155. | 205. | 249. | 305. | 338.
| %IMP | 57% | -11% | -141% | -48% | -154% | -284%
|
| GFNO | 125. | 32. | 111. | 148. | 56. | 176.
| GFAL | 102. | 117. | 177. | 138. | 244. | 415.
| %IMP | 18% | -266% | -59% | 7% | -336% | -136%
|
| VBNO | 249. | 297. | 423. | 455. | 576. | 742.
| VBAL | 228. | 271. | 396. | 433. | 560. | 717.
| %IMP | 8% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -43. | -36. | -39. | -40. | -30. | -17.
| AVAL | -34. | -28. | -32. | -41. | -27. | -15.
| IMP | 27% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 21% | 15%
|
| GFNO | -19. | -4. | -7. | -15. | 2. | 36.
| GFAL | -17. | 15. | 26. | 23. | 50. | 72.
| %IMP | 11% | -275% | -271% | -53%-2400% | -100%
|
| SHNO | -23. | -6. | 1. | 6. | 26. | 43.
| SHAL | -24. | -9. | -4. | -2. | 16. | 31.
| %IMP | -4% | -50% | -300% | 67% | 36% | 28%
|
| DSNO | -23. | -6. | 1. | -5. | 15. | 32.
| DSAL | -24. | -9. | -4. | -11. | 8. | 23.
| %IMP | -4% | -50% | -300% | -120% | 47% | 28%
| | ||||||||||
22/0600 UTC 17.5N 61.7W near Barbuda 24 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.60 | 61.57 | 22.5 | 123.0 | Near Barbuda
| AVAL | 16.96 | 61.83 | 20.5 | 61.6 | Off Road, Antigua
| %IMP | -133% | 41% |
|
| GFNO | 17.55 | 61.74 | 25.0 | 7.0 | Codrington, Barbuda
| GFAL | 17.74 | 61.78 | 28.5 | 28.0 | Codrington, Barbuda
| %IMP | -350% | 40%
|
| VBNO | 17.98 | 61.81 | 37.5 | 54.6 | Near Barbuda
| VBAL | 17.48 | 61.79 | 35.5 | 9.8 | Codrington, Barbuda
| %IMP | 15% | 30%
|
|
| 22/0915 UTC 17.9N 62.8W near St.-Barthelemy 28.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.82 | 62.82 | 26.0 | 102.2 | Near Anguilla
| AVAL | 17.03 | 62.56 | 22.5 | 99.9 | Dogwood Point, Nevis
| %IMP | -156% | 2%
|
| GFNO | 17.68 | 62.93 | 28.5 | 28.0 | Near St.-Barthelemy
| GFAL | 18.07 | 62.99 | 33.0 | 27.6 | Marigot, St. Martin
| %IMP | -1800% | 1%
|
| VBNO | 18.28 | 63.02 | 43.5 | 48.2 | The Valley, Anguilla
| VBAL | 17.71 | 62.94 | 41.0 | 25.8 | Near St.-Barthelemy
| %IMP | 16% | 46%
|
|
| 22/1500 UTC 18.5N 64.4W near Virgin Gorda 33 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | 18.96 | 64.26 | 30.0 | 53.2 | Near Anegada
| AVAL | 17.42 | 64.88 | 29.0 | 130.3 | Near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| %IMP | -33% | -145%
|
| GFNO | 17.78 | 64.86 | 34.5 | 93.6 | Hams Bluff,St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands
| GFAL | 18.84 | 64.60 | 39.0 | 43.2 | Anegada
| %IMP | -300% | 54%
|
| VBNO | 18.59 | 64.28 | 50.0 | 16.1 | Pajaros Point, Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Islands
| VBAL | 18.24 | 65.29 | 53.5 | 98.2 | Culebra, Puerto Rico
| %IMP | -21% | -510%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 21 August 2000 0600 UTC (Hurricane Debby).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 21 August 2000 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 August 2000 0600 UTC.
