Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 July 2003 1200 UTC
Claudette.

Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

GFSN	121	204	217	217	338
GFSO	104	166	204	223	395
%IMP	14%	19%	6%	-3%	-17%

GFNO	104	133	172	212	382	467
GFDL	80	89	111	163	313	330
%IMP	23%	33%	35%	23%	18%	29%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

GFSN	-35	-53	-29	-20	-15
GFSO	-30	-44	-23	-18	-15
%IMP	14%	17%	21%	10%	0%

GFNO	12	10	46	22	22	14
GFDL	8	3	25	4	12	13
%IMP	33%	70%	46%	82%	45%	7%

SHNO	-4	-18	8	24	30	31
SHIP	-4	-18	8	23	29	32
%IMP	0%	0%	0%	4%	3%	-3%

DSNO	-4	-18	8	1	0	3
DSHP	-4	-18	8	5	1	3
%IMP	0%	0%	0%	-400%	und%	0%

Landfall forecasts

15/1530 UTC 28.3N 96.2W Matagorda Island, TX 27.5 h into the forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

GFSN 26.55 97.28 32.5 221.7 Port Mansfield, TX
GFSO 26.71 97.36 33.0 210.4 Port Mansfield, TX
%IMP -10% 5%

GFNO 28.16 96.87 38.0 67.4 Rockport, TX
GFDL 27.60 97.25 33.5 129.1 Corpus Christi, TX
%IMP 43% -92%

Landfall forecasts
15/1530 UTC 28.3N 96.2W Matagorda Island, TX 27.5 h into the forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

GFSN	26.55	97.28	32.5	221.7	Port Mansfield, TX
GFSO	26.71	97.36	33.0	210.4	Port Mansfield, TX
%IMP			-10%	5%

GFNO	28.16	96.87	38.0	67.4	Rockport, TX
GFDL	27.60	97.25	33.5	129.1	Corpus Christi, TX
%IMP			43%	-92%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 July 2003 1200 UTC
Claudette.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 14-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC Claudette.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 14-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 July 2003 1200 UTC
Claudette.