Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 July 2003 0600 UTC
Claudette.


Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSNNo forecast available
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSNNo forecast available
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
SHNO -1 -4 -6 25 31 41
SHIP -2 -6 -9 21 26 35
%IMP-100%-50%-50%16%16%15%
DSNO -1 -4 -6 25 2 5
DSHP -2 -6 -9 4 -3 3
%IMP-100%-50%-50%84%-50%40%

Landfall forecasts

15/1530 UTC 28.3N 96.2W Matagorda Island, TX 33.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
GFSN26.2697.2238.0222.2Port Mansfield, TX
GFSONo forecast available
%IMP
GFNO28.0097.1543.5 17.7Port O'Connor, TX
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 July 2003 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 14 July 2003 0600 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 14-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 July 2003 0600 UTC.