Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
12 July 2003 1200 UTC
Claudette.


Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSN129161282410468433
GFSO112129253389452456
%IMP13%20% 7% 5% 3%-5%
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFSN-18-21-24-25-32-55
GFSO -9-14-21-21-30-53
%IMP50%33%13%16% 6% 4%
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
SHNONo forecast available
SHIPNo forecast available
%IMP
DSNONo forecast available
DSHPNo forecast available
%IMP

Landfall forecasts

15/1530 UTC 28.3N 96.2W Matagorda Island, TX 75.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
GFSN25.1597.4862.0372.3El Arpa, Tamaulipas, Mexico
GFSO24.8097.6970.0416.1Puerto Rico, Tamaulipas, Mexico
%IMP 59% -12%
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDLNo landfall forecast
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 12 July 2003 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 12 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 July 2003 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 July 2003 1200 UTC.