Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
12 July 2003 0000 UTC
Claudette.
Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFSN | 82 | 142 | 192 | 301 | 407 | 462 | 431 |
| GFSO | 30 | 69 | 123 | 274 | 401 | 452 | 457 |
| %IMP | 63% | 51% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 2% | -6%
|
| GFNO | 144 | 240 | 283 | 411 | 519 | 552 | 461 | 389 | 484 |
| GFDL | 136 | 205 | 306 | 441 | 553 | 578 | 463 | 400 | 489 |
| %IMP | 6% | 15% | -8% | -7% | -5% | -5% | 0% | -3% | -1% |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFSN | -15 | -13 | -19 | -22 | -25 | -37 | -56 |
| GFSO | -3 | -5 | -13 | -21 | -22 | -34 | -52 |
| %IMP | 80% | 62% | 32% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 7% |
|
| GFNO | -10 | -13 | -18 | -26 | -25 | -34 | -50 | -25 | -11 |
| GFDL | -9 | 3 | -16 | -24 | -25 | -34 | -48 | -23 | -12 |
| %IMP | 10% | 77% | 11% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 8% | -9% |
|
| SHNO | -8 | -7 | -11 | -14 | -12 | -16 | -29 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| SHIP | -7 | -7 | -11 | -14 | -14 | -17 | -29 | 1 | 18 | 23 |
| %IMP | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -17% | -6% | 0% | und% | -13% | 0% |
|
| DSNO | -8 | -7 | -11 | -14 | -12 | -16 | -35 | -19 | -7 | -3 |
| DSHP | -7 | -7 | -11 | -14 | -14 | -17 | -35 | -19 | -7 | -3 |
| %IMP | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -17% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | ||||||||||
| 15/1530 UTC 28.3N 96.2W Matagorda Island, TX 87.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| GFSN | 25.31 | 97.36 | 71.5 | 351.5 | Isla la Mano de Le, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFSO | 24.94 | 97.55 | 80.0 | 396.6 | Isla la Tuna, Tamauli
pas, Mexico
| %IMP | -53% | -13%
|
| GFNO | 24.97 | 97.54 | 57.5 | 393.2 | Isla la Tuna, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| GFDL | 25.38 | 97.50 | 59.0 | 349.1 | Guajardo, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| %IMP | 5% | 11% |
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 12 July 2003 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Claudette).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models initialized on 12 July 2003 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 12 July 2003 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 July 2003 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
