Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
05 July 2005 1200 UTC
Cindy.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 56 | 44 | 86 | 99 | 175 | 134 | 267 | 275 | 405 |
| AVNO | 22 | 22 | 104 | 29 | 34 | 109 | 45 | 183 | 549 |
| %IMP | 61% | 50% | -21% | 70% | 81% | 19% | 83% | 33% | 36% |
|
| GFNO | 53 | 147 | 129 | 284 | 483 | 548 | 537 | 383 | 366 | 456
| GFDL | 83 | 181 | 167 | 337 | 526 | 576 | 642 | 567 | 667 | 806
| %IMP | -57% | -23% | -29% | -19% | -9% | -5% | -20% | -48% | -86% | -77%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -33 | 1 | -8 | -8 | -9 | -7 | -3 | -5 | -9 |
| AVNO | -31 | 4 | -10 | -6 | -8 | 3 | 4 | -5 | -16 |
| %IMP | 6% | -300% | -25% | 25% | -11% | 57% | -33% | 0% | -78% |
|
| GFNO | -2 | 43 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 17 | 28 | 8 | 8
| GFDL | -5 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 10 | 8
| %IMP | -150% | -17% | 8% | 43% | -50% | 86% | 59% | 11% | -25% | 0%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 06/0300 UTC 29.2N 90.1W 8 nm SW of Grand Isle, LA, 15.0 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.19 | 90.27 | 13.0 | 16.5 | Grand Isle, LA
| AVNO | 29.29 | 90.08 | 16.5 | 10.2 | Grand Isle, LA
| %IMP | 25% | 38%
|
| GFNO | 29.22 | 90.27 | 20.0 | 16.6 | Grand Isle, LA
| GFDL | 29.30 | 90.52 | 21.5 | 42.2 | Cocodrie, LA
| %IMP | -30% | -154%
|
|
06/0900 UTC 30.2N 89.5W 3 nm SE of Ansley, MS, 21.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.25 | 89.90 | 19.0 | 38.8 | Slidell, LA
| AVNO | 30.19 | 89.67 | 20.5 | 16.4 | Slidell, LA
| %IMP | 75% | 58%
|
| GFNO | 30.18 | 89.59 | 26.5 | 8.9 | Slidell, LA
| GFDL | 30.28 | 89.89 | 27.5 | 38.5 | Slidell, LA
| %IMP | -18% | -333%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 05 July 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Cindy).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 05 July 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 05 July 2005 1200 UTC.
