Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
05 July 2005 0000 UTC
Cindy.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 24 63 24 35158153 43115 43 291
AVNO 52 54 31145214328241334 357 278
%IMP-117%14%-29%-314%-35%-114%-460%-190%-730% 4%
GFNO124 6313223042164268191812481547
GFDL254246274362586821896109813691679
%IMP-105%-290%-108%-57%-31%-29%-32%-20%-10% -9%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-14-36 1 -1-10 -8 -1 -2-12-14
AVNO-15-29 6 0 -8 -6 -9 -1 -7-12
%IMP 7%19%-500%100%20%25%-800%50%42%14%
GFNO 2 -8 39 22 12 5 -2 -6-15 -9
GFDL-17-18 39 45 20 8 -4 -4-14-10
%IMP-750%-125% 0%-105%-67%-60%-100%33% 7%-11%

Landfall forecasts

06/0300 UTC 29.2N 90.1W 8 nm SW of Grand Isle, LA, 27.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 29.4789.84 26.5 39.2Port Sulphur, LA
AVNO29.2389.49 28.0 59.2Triumph, LA
%IMP-100% -51%
GFNO29.4689.90 32.5 34.8Port Sulphur, LA
GFDL29.2690.28 40.0 18.7Grand Isle, LA
%IMP-136% 46%
06/0900 UTC 30.2N 89.5W 3 nm SE of Ansley, MS, 33.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 30.1989.55 30.5 4.9Slidell, LA
AVNO30.4288.96 33.0 57.3Biloxi, MS
%IMP ud0%-1069%
GFNO30.1689.69 38.5 18.8Slidell, LA
GFDL30.1589.88 48.5 36.9Gulfport, MS
%IMP-282% -96%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 05 July 2005 0000 UTC (Tropical Depression Three).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 05 July 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 03 July 2005 0600 UTC to 04 July 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Tropical Storm Arlene. [No ensemble tracks available]

Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 04 July 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 05 July 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.[None available]

Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 05 July 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [None available]

Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 05 July 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [None available]

Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 05 July 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 9. 24-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 05 July 2005 0000 UTC.