Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 August 2006 0600 UTC
Chris.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 56 43 11 10 43 72
AVNO 74147 80111 98 99
%IMP-32%-242%-627%-1010%-128%-38%
GFNO113154
GFDL 79122
%IMP30%21%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 13 6 7 7 5 4
AVNO 2 14 4 7 4 3
%IMP85%-13%43% 0%20%25%
GFNO-13 -5
GFDL-13 -2
%IMP 0%60%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 August 2006 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Chris).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 03 August 2006 0600 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 0600 UTC.