Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 August 2006 0000 UTC
Chris.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 38 42 21 35 66105135
AVNO 53 93 38 80 73103128
%IMP-39%-121%-81%-129%-11% 2% 5%
GFNO 39137206241345370377
GFDL 69175260279353412461
%IMP-77%-28%-26%-16%-2%-11%-22%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 1 5 4 3 3 4 7
AVNO -5 4 6 6 7 6 7
%IMP-400%20%-50%-100%-133%-50% 0%
GFNO 11 25 9 10 20 16 21
GFDL 30 32 34 18 29 37 40
%IMP-173%-28%-378%-80%-45%-131%-90%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 20 August 2006 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Chris).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 20 August 2006 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 31 July 2006 0600 UTC to 01 August 2006 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Tropical Storm Chris.

Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 03 August 2006 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 03 August 2006 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 03 August 2006 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]

Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 03 August 2006 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]

Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 9. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 0000 UTC.