Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 August 2006 1800 UTC
Chris.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 33 24 53 33 39 47 88
AVNO 43127114 56 62 85129
%IMP-30%-429%-115%-70%-59%-81%-47%
GFNO 59133293452405417485
GFDL 64122198252330376402
%IMP-8% 8%32%44%19% 9%17%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 2 4 16 3 6 5 7
AVNO-13 7 7 4 6 3 2
%IMP-50%-75%56%33% 0%20%71%
GFNO 7 16 16 10 6 1 4
GFDL 7 13 14 15 6 20 4
%IMP 0%19%12%-50% 0%-1900% 0%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 August 2006 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Chris).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 02 August 2006 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 02 August 2006 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 02 August 2006 1800 UTC.