Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 August 2004 0000 UTC
Charley.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 38113157264355
AVNO 69 192296462595
%IMP-82%-70%-89%-75%-68%
GFNO 46121246372542
GFDL 35132259406614
%IMP24% -9% -5%-9% -13%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-58-43-19-12 -6
AVNO-48-22-18 -6 -7
%IMP17%49%18550%-16%
GFNO -1 25 24 23 29
GFDL 2 29 31 23 24
%IMP-100%-16%-29% 0%17%

Landfall forecasts

13/0430 UTC 22.7N 82.6W Near Playa del Cajio, Cuba 4.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 22.7482.75 4.0 16.0Artemisa, La Habana, Cuba
AVNO22.5482.95 5.5 40.1San Cristobal, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-100%-141%
GFNO22.6582.76 6.0 17.3Artemisa, La Habana, Cuba
GFDL22.6182.80 5.5 22.8Candelaria, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 33% -32%
13/1945 UTC 26.6N 82.2W Near Cayo Costa, FL 19.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 27.9582.6624.5156.7St. Petersburg, FL
AVNO27.8882.9427.0159.9Clearwater Beach, FL
%IMP-53% -2%
GFNO26.9282.3523.0 38.5Port Charlotte, FL
GFDL27.5882.5625.0114.6Bradenton, FL
%IMP-62%-198%
13/2045 UTC 26.9N 82.1W Near Punta Gorda, FL 20.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 27.9582.6624.5232.1St. Petersburg, FL
AVNO28.9582.7130.5235.5Inglis, FL
%IMP-160% -1%
GFNO26.9282.3523.0 24.9Port Charlotte, FL
GFDL27.5882.5625.0 88.2Bradenton, FL
%IMP-89%-254%
14/1400 UTC 33.0N 79.4W Near Cape Romain, SC 38.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNNNo landfall forecst
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDL31.2081.3037.5268.3St. Simons Island, GA
%IMP
14/1600 UTC 33.8N 78.7W Near North Myrtle Beach, SC 40.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNNNo landfall forecast
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDL32.0680.9040.0281.9Savannah, GA
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 August 2004 0000 UTC (Hurricane Charley).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 13 August 2004 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 August 2004 0000 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 August 2004 0000 UTC.