Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
12 August 2004 1200 UTC
Charley.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 18928951984412341620
AVNO 46 67214368562655
%IMP76%77% 59%56%54%60%
GFNO15622347679912001570
GFDL1021713746599961331
%IMP35% 23% 21%18%17%15%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-55-60-38-28 7 -3
AVNO-44-47-25-18 -3 -4
%IMP20%22%34%36%57%-33%
GFNO 11 16 24 46 71 24
GFDL 17 15 29 45 38 11
%IMP-55% 6%-21% 2%46% 54%

Landfall forecasts

13/0430 UTC 22.7N 82.6W Near Playa del Cajio, Cuba 16.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 22.1583.7825.5135.7Galafre, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
AVNO22.6382.9218.0 33.7San Cristobal, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 83% 75%
GFNO22.2383.4722.5103.5Near Pinar del Rio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFDL22.2083.4219.5100.9Near Pinar del Rio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 50% 3%
13/1945 UTC 26.6N 82.2W Near Cayo Costa, FL 31.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 29.7784.9164.5441.0Apalachicola, FL
AVNO29.0982.8444.5370.8Port Inglis, FL
%IMP 61% 16%
GFNO29.8084.6963.5431.1Carabelle Beach, FL
GFDL29.9983.8757.0410.5Perry, FL
%IMP 20% 5%
13/2045 UTC 26.9N 82.1W Near Punta Gorda, FL 32.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 29.7784.9164.5420.9Apalachicola, FL
AVNO29.0982.8444.5340.0Port Inglis, FL
%IMP 63% 19%
GFNO29.8084.6963.5409.8Carabelle Beach, FL
GFDL29.9983.8757.0384.4Perry, FL
%IMP 21% 6%
14/1400 UTC 33.0N 79.4W Near Cape Romain, SC 50.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN No landfall forecast
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDLNo landfall forecast
%IMP
14/1600 UTC 33.8N 78.7W Near North Myrtle Beach, SC 52.0 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN No landfall forecast
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNONo landfall forecast
GFDLNo landfall forecast
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 12 August 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Charley).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 12 August 2004 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Predction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 11 August 2004 1800 UTC to 11 August 2004 1200 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Charley.

Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 12 August 2004 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 12 August 2004 1200 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 6. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 August 2004 1200 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 7. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 August 2004 1200 UTC.