Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 August 2004 1800 UTC
Bonnie.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 32 | 135 | | | |
| AVNO | 94 | 164 | | | | | |
| %IMP | -194% | -21% | | | | | |
|
| GFNO | Dissipated
| GFDL | Dissipated
| %IMP | | | | | | | | | | INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -3 | -5 | | |
| AVNO | -1 | -4 | | |
| %IMP | 67% | 20% | | |
|
| GFNO | Dissipated
| GFDL | Dissipated
| %IMP | | | | |
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 August 2004 1800 UTC (Former Tropical Depression Two).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 04 August 2004 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 04 August 2004 1800 UTC.
