Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 August 2001 0600 UTC
Tropical Storm Barry.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 22. | 54. | 80. | 117. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 37. | 41. | 56. | 83. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -68% | 24% | 30% | 29%
|
| GFNO | 79. | 145. | 147. | 125. | 126. | 110. | 164. | 292. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 70. | 142. | 134. | 83. | 57. | 71. | 153. | 266. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 11% | 2% | 9% | 34% | 55% | 35% | 7% | 9%
|
| VBNO | 104. | 216. | 295. | 394. | 386. | 321. | 341. | 430. | 9999. | 9999.
| VBAL | 98. | 200. | 294. | 395. | 397. | 328. | 355. | 451. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 6% | 7% | 0% | 0% | -3% | -2% | -4% | -5%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -11. | -12. | -32. | -39. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -12. | -13. | -30. | -35. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -9% | -8% | 6% | 10%
|
| GFNO | 10. | 41. | 33. | 17. | 23. | 34. | 23. | 32. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 12. | 31. | 30. | 32. | 25. | 30. | 26. | 31. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -20% | 24% | 0% | -88% | -9% | 12% | -13% | 3%
|
| SHNO | 4. | 5. | -6. | 2. | 51. | 62. | 70. | 68. | 9999. | 9999.
| SHAL | 5. | 6. | -5. | 2. | 51. | 62. | 70. | 68. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -25% | -20% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| DSNO | 4. | 5. | -6. | 2. | 23. | 17. | 23. | 19. | 9999. | 9999.
| DSAL | 5. | 6. | -5. | 2. | 23. | 17. | 23. | 19. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -25% | -20% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
| | ||||||||||
06/0500UTC 21.5N 81.8W Santa Rosa Beach, FL 47 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.41 | 86.51 | 42.0 | 20.2 | Destin, FL
| AVAL | 30.45 | 86.20 | 43.5 | 19.2 | Niceville, FL
| %IMP | 30% | 5%
|
| GFNO | 30.31 | 87.60 | 46.0 | 125.0 | Orange Beach, AL
| GFAL | 30.41 | 87.22 | 48.5 | 88.2 | Pensacola, FL
| %IMP | -50% | 29%
|
| VBNO | 29.43 | 90.03 | 56.0 | 375.0 | Grand Bayou, LA
| VBAL | 29.55 | 90.11 | 58.0 | 378.6 | Turtle Bay, LA
| %IMP | -29% | -1%
|
| | |||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 August 2001 0600 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 04 August 2001 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 04 August 2001 0600 UTC.
Figure 4.
12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa
mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 04 August 2001 0600 UTC.