Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 June 2005 0000 UTC
Arlene.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 125 | 260 | 267 | 400 | 599 | 762 | 728 | 902 | |
| AVNO | 85 | 181 | 257 | 322 | 534 | 794 | 812 | 859 | |
| %IMP | 32% | 30% | 4% | 19% | 11% | -4% | -12% | 5% | |
|
| GFNO | 79 | 238 | 248 | 331 | 448 | 501 | 478 | 324 | |
| GFDL | 30 | 160 | 178 | 236 | 385 | 403 | 397 | 253 | |
| %IMP | 62% | 33% | 28% | 29% | 14% | 20% | 17% | 22% | |
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -23 | -31 | -33 | -11 | 4 | -6 | -9 | -13 | |
| AVNO | -23 | -24 | -31 | -9 | 2 | -9 | -8 | -11 | |
| %IMP | 0% | 23% | 6% | 18% | 50% | -50% | 11% | 15% | |
|
| GFNO | -7 | -8 | -9 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 26 | |
| GFDL | -4 | -11 | -9 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 31 | |
| %IMP | 43% | -38% | 0% | -70% | 42% | 33% | 100% | -19% | |
|
| | ||||||||||
| 10/0800 UTC 21.8N 84.5W near Cabo Corrientes, western Cuba 8.0 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.76 | 85.14 | 6.5 | 66.2 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.89 | 84.88 | 6.0 | 40.4 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -33% | 39%
|
| GFNO | 21.93 | 84.83 | 8.5 | 37.0 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.00 | 84.63 | 8.0 | 25.9 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 100% | 30%
|
|
11/1900 UTC 30.3N 87.5W near and just west of Pensacola 43.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.47 | 89.96 | 57.0 | 254.3 | Grand Isle, LA
| AVNO | 30.36 | 88.60 | 62.0 | 105.7 | Pascagoula, MS
| %IMP | -35% | 58%
|
| GFNO | 29.47 | 89.95 | 50.0 | 253.4 | Grand Isle, LA
| GFDL | 30.35 | 88.43 | 54.0 | 89.4 | Pascagoula, MS
| %IMP | -57% | 65%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 June 2005 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Arlene).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 June 2005 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 08 June 2005 0600 UTC to 09 June 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Tropical Storm Arlene. [No ensemble tracks available]
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 10 June 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 10 June 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 10 June 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 10 June 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [None available]
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 June 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
