Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 June 2005 1800 UTC
Arlene.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	106	201	259	304	425	702	928
AVNO	136	184	189	268	428	712	930
%IMP	-28%	8%	27%	12%	-1%	-1%	0%

GFNO	53	120	151	234	316	408	441	273	432
GFDL	70	92	97	168	237	326	346	199	325
%IMP	-32%	23%	36%	28%	25%	20%	22%	27%	25%

INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	-19	-20	-32	-27	-2	0	-12
AVNO	-20	-23	-32	-27	-3	3	-7
%IMP	-5%	-15%	0%	0%	-50%	und%	42%

GFNO	2	-3	-13	-4	16	1	1	18	31
GFDL	3	6	2	8	12	3	0	16	32
%IMP	-50%	-100%	85%	-100%	25%	-200%	100%	11%	-3%

Landfall forecasts

10/0800 UTC 21.8N 84.5W Near Cabo Corrientes, western Cuba 14.0 h into the forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 21.77 85.03 11.5 54.8 Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
AVNO 21.71 85.14 10.5 66.8 Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -40% -22%

GFNO 21.82 85.09 15.0 56.8 Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFDL 21.86 85.10 13.5 62.2 Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 50% -10%

11/1900 UTC 30.3N 87.5W Near and just west of Pensacola 49.0 h into the forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 28.95 89.41 58.0 237.7 South Pass, LA
AVNO 29.05 89.29 59.5 221.7 South Pass, LA
%IMP -28% 7%

GFNO 28.88 89.45 48.5 245.7 South Pass, LA
GFDL 30.28 89.40 54.5 182.3 Gulfport, MS
%IMP -1000% 26%

Landfall forecasts
10/0800 UTC 21.8N 84.5W Near Cabo Corrientes, western Cuba 14.0 h into the forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	21.77	85.03	11.5	54.8	Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
AVNO	21.71	85.14	10.5	66.8	Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-40%	-22%

GFNO	21.82	85.09	15.0	56.8	Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFDL	21.86	85.10	13.5	62.2	Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			50%	-10%

11/1900 UTC 30.3N 87.5W Near and just west of Pensacola 49.0 h into the forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	28.95	89.41	58.0	237.7	South Pass, LA
AVNO	29.05	89.29	59.5	221.7	South Pass, LA
%IMP			-28%	7%

GFNO	28.88	89.45	48.5	245.7	South Pass, LA
GFDL	30.28	89.40	54.5	182.3	Gulfport, MS
%IMP			-1000%	26%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Arlene).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 June 2005 1800 UTC
Arlene.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Arlene).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC Arlene.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Arlene).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 June 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 June 2005 1800 UTC
Arlene.