There are two systems in the Atlantic basin at this time. The first is the remnants of T.D. #13, located at around 28 N 50 W (Fig. 62). There is deep convection associated with this system, though it is currently experiment moderate 20-kt shear (Fig. 63). NHC has indicated that this system may regenerate into T.D.#13, but it is forecast to move off to the north and northeast and no longer be an area of interest. There is another system of interest farther east in the Atlantic (Fig. 64). There is a long line of convection associated with this system, but, as evident from the visible image, the convection is well to the east of the low-level circulation, which is located at about 16.5 N 40 W. The low-level layer-average flow (Fig. 65) indicates that this system would track to the west-northwest and then encounter southerly flow at around 55 or 60 W. There is a broad area of low-level stable air possibly indicative of the Saharan Air Layer surrounding the system (Fig. 66). This would likely prevent it from continuing to develop.

Finally, there are a series of waves over Africa at this time (Fig. 67). These waves contain some vigorous convection and show evidence of midlevel rotation. Some of the global models and global model ensemble members indicate development in the next several days (Fig. 68) off the coast of Africa.

Rob Rogers
HRD Field Program director