Mission Summary
Hurricane Bonnie

980821 i Aircraft 43RF

Scientific Crew (43RF)
Lead Project ScientistSim Aberson
Radar ScientistJohn Gamache, Peter Dodge
Dropwindsonde ScientistJohn Gamache, Peter Dodge
Workstation ScientistPeter Dodge


Mission Briefing:

Tropical Storm Bonnie north of the Virgin Islands moving toward the west to west northwest around 20 kn, potentially threatening the Bahama Islands and the southeastern US coastline (Fig. 1). Tropical Storm Charley in the Gulf of Mexico is not a concern during this mission. The ridge to the north is showing signs of weakening just off the US east coast, though a cold low beginning to develop over northern Florida could steer Bonnie further to the north despite the trough over the northeastern US weakening and pulling eastward. The weak features suggest a weakening steering pattern, with resultant forecasting difficulty. A three plane synoptic flow mission was therefore called.

Ensemble-based targeting (Fig. 2) suggests that the areas of uncertainty are Bonnie itself, and the axis of a short-wave trough embedded in the large trough off the US east coast, located near 35N and 60W. The flight tracks of the three NOAA planes would cover these areas of uncertainty.


Mission Synopsis and Evaluation:

N43RF lost it's nose-cone steering on the runway in Bermuda, and the flight was cancelled. A part was ordered, arrived the next day, and was quickly installed.


Sim Aberson
9 September 1998


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