Figure 3. Seasonal march of MPI predicted by applying the techniques of Holland (1996) and Emanuel (1991) to a number of monthly mean radiosonde soundings in the Australian-southwest Pacific region, together with the observed extreme cyclone intensities (shaded region). The solid line is the ambient surface pressure; the line with dots is the MPI from Emanuel model; the dashed line is the MPI from Holland model (adapted from Tonkin 1996).