Table 1

Table 1: Summary of information on named tropical cyclones occurring during the 1995 Atlantic season. Information on tropical storms (TS - one minute surface winds of 18-32 m s-1), minor hurricanes (MH - 33-49 m s-1) and intense hurricanes (IH - 50 m s-1) with highest Saffir-Simpson (Simpson 1974) category is shown. Dates indicate the days in which the storm was at least tropical storm force in intensity. Individual totals of named storm days (NSD - days in which the storm has at least 18 m s-1 winds), hurricane days (HD - days of winds at least 33 m s-1), intense hurricane days (IHD - days of winds at least 50 m s-1), and hurricane destruction potential (HDP - sum of winds squared every six hours that the storm is of hurricane force in units of 104 kt2) are also provided.



Named Maximum Dates of Named Maximum Sustained
Storm Category Storm Stage Surface Winds (m s-1) NSD HD IHD HDP
1. Allison MH-1 Jun. 3-5 33 m s-1 2.500.75 0 1.3
2. Barry TS Jul. 7-10 31 3.25 0 0 0
3. Chantal TS Jul. 14-20 316.75 0 00
4. Dean TS Jul. 30-31 21 0.50 0 0 0
5. Erin MH-2 Jul. 31-Aug. 444 4.50 2.50 0 5.3
6. Felix IH-4Aug. 8-2262 14.00 9.25 1.75 24.2
7. Gabrielle TS Aug. 9-11 31 1.50 0 00
8. Humberto MH-2 Aug. 22-Sep. 149 10.00 8.50 0 21.0
9. Iris MH-2Aug. 22-Sep. 4 49 12.75 7.50 0 17.6
10. Jerry TS Aug. 23-24 231.25 0 0 0
11. Karen TS Aug. 28-Sep. 2 23 5.25 0 0 0
12. Luis IH-4Aug. 29-Sep. 1162 12.75 10.50 8.25 52.3
13. Marilyn IH-3 Sep. 13-22 529.25 7.75 0.50 19.9
14. Noel MH-1 Sep. 27-Oct. 7 33 9.75 2.750 4.6
15. Opal IH-4 Sep. 30-Oct. 567 5.00 2.75 1.009.0
16. Pablo TS Oct. 5-8 26 3.00 0 0 0
17. Roxanne IH-3Oct. 9-18 52 10.00 5.00 0.25 11.2
18. SebastienTS Oct. 21-2328 3.00 00 0
19. Tanya MH-1 Oct. 27-Nov. 139 5.50 3.00 0 6.1



Table 2

Table 2: Summary of the 1995 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity and comparison with average conditions.

Forecast Climatology 1995 1995 in
Parameter (1950-90) % of Climatology
Named Storms (NS) 9.3 19 204%
Named Storm Days (NSD) 46.6 121 260%
Hurricanes (H) 5.8 11 190%
Hurricane Days (HD) 23.9 60 251%
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 2.3 5 217%
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 4.7 11.75 250%
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) 71.2 172 241%
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 100% 229% 229%

Table 3

Table 3: Comparison of 1995 hurricane activity with the ten most active hurricane seasons during the last 110 years. Numbers of all of the parameters are less reliable before the mid-1940s (Neumann et al. 1993, Landsea 1993). Following Landsea (1993), the 1944-1969 values of IH, IHD, HDP and NTC are adjusted slightly downward to account for an overestimation of the tropical cyclone best track winds. Underlined values show seasonal totals for a particular parameter that were greater than or equal to the values for 1995.


6
Forecast
Parameter 199519691961195519501933192619161906 18931887
Named Storms (NS) 1917111213211114 111219
Named Storm Days (NSD) 12184718298136 87 8889111106
Hurricanes (H) 1112891178111010
Hurricane Days (HD) 60 40 48 4760 505547447255
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 5 3 6 5 7 566432
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 11.75 2.75 20.75 13.75 15.75 10.50 23.0010.7511.2525.008.25
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) 172 110 170 158 200 152197143137230158
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 229% 156% 222% 198% 243% 215% 237% 203% 168% 250% 179%

Table 4

Table 4: 1995 Caribbean 200 mb Zonal Wind Anomalies (ZWA) in m s-1 and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in mb for the base period 1950 to 1990. ZWA is computed from the four stations of Kingston (18N), Curacao (12N), Barbados (13.5N), and Trinidad (11N). SLP anomalies are computed by two indices: the Caribbean (San Juan, Barbados, Trinidad, Curacao and Cayenne) and the Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico (Brownsville, Miami, Merida, San Juan, Curacao and Barbados).

AprilMay JuneJuly August September October
Average ZWA (m s-1) -2.5 -0.5 -1.6 -4.3 -7.0 -4.1 -0.8
Caribbean SLP anomalies (mb) -0.9 +0.5 -0.2 -1.2 -1.3 +0.3 -0.2
Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico SLP anomalies (mb) -1.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -2.9 -0.3 -1.4


Table 5

Table 5: August-October values and differences for 1994 and 1995. Tropical cyclone parameters are shown in the top portion of the panel and environmental factors are shown in the bottom portion.

Tropical Cyclone Parameters

NS H IH NSD HD IHD HDP NTC
1995 14 9 5 104 57 11.75 165 206%
1994 4 1 0 11 2 0 4 15%
1995-1994 10 8 5 93 55 11.75 161 191%


Environmental Parameters

Caribbean Caribbean/ Tropical Niño 3.4 Caribbean Western < /td>
200 mb Gulf of Mexico Atlantic SST 30 mb Sahel
zonal wind SLP SST anomalies anomalies zonal wind rainfall
anomalies anomalies (5-20N, 30-60W) (C) anomalies anomalies
(m s-1) (mb) (C) (m s) (Std. Devs.)
1995 -4.0 -1.5 +0.5 -0.6 -6 -0.22
1994 +1.1 +0.7 -0.3 +0.6 -25 -0.20
1995-1994 -5.1 -2.2 +0.8 -1.2 +19 +0.02



Table 6

Table 6: Verification of the 1995 seasonal hurricane predictions (Gray 1994, 1995, Gray et al. 1995a,b).

30 Nov. 14 Apr. 1995 7 June 4 August
Forecast 1994 Qualitative 1995 1995
Parameter Forecast Adjustment Forecast Forecast Verification
Named Storms (NS) 121012 1619
Named Storm Days (NSD)655065 65 121
Hurricanes (H) 868 9 11
Hurricane Days (HD) 352535 30 60
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 323 3 5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 856 5 11.75
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)10075110 90 172
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 140%100%140% 130% 229%

Table 7

Table 7: Verification of 4 August 1995 forecast for hurricane activity after 1 August.

Climatology Forecast
Forecast (1950-1990) Activity After 1 Aug
Parameter After 1 Aug After 1 Aug Verification
Named Storms (NS) 7.911 14
Named Storm Days (NSD)42.049 104
Hurricanes (H) 5.27 9
Hurricane Days (HD) 22.727 57
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 2.23 5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 4.7 5 11.75
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)68.484 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 92.8%107% 206%