********************************************* * NESDIS/TPC/HRD INTENSITY FORECAST (SHIPS) * * ATLANTIC 5-DAY VERSION * ********************************************* MICHELLE 11/03/01 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 118 117 111 100 87 73 62 53 46 40 V (KT) LAND 105 118 117 111 75 63 48 38 28 21 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 23 41 38 48 48 57 55 51 36 38 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.0 25.9 24.4 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 157 151 141 142 135 129 118 106 78 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -49.2 -48.8 -47.8 200 MB U (KT) -2 8 20 18 33 35 51 58 58 46 21 850-700 MB RH 80 78 78 78 75 70 66 58 60 71 82 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 -1 0 0 0 -8 6 19 12 -1 850 MB VORT 127 161 146 175 180 209 191 196 61 244 283 LAND (KM) 329 189 73 34 44 275 658 1007 1360 1024 422 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.4 25.0 26.5 28.6 31.2 36.3 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.1 83.9 82.9 80.8 77.6 73.2 68.0 62.2 58.0 55.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM SPEED/HEADING (KTS/DEG) 4/350 EAST/NORTH STORM MOTION COMPONENTS 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 443 (MEAN=614) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -31. -37. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -36. -35. -32. -28. PERSISTENCE 12. 16. 16. 16. 12. 9. 6. 3. 0. -2. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. 850-700 MB RH 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB MOM. FLUX 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 17. 21. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 13. 12. 6. -5. -18. -32. -42. -52. -59. -65. ------------------------------------------------ RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX (30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN 24 HR) 4 OF 5 RI CONDITIONS SATISFIED PROB OF RI (26.1%) is 4.3 TIMES THAT OF THE SAMPLE MEAN (6.1%)